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Kickoff takeaways: Seattle's defense is still the best in football, and A.J. Brown won't be the focal point

Writer: Down at the One
Down at the One
12 minutes ago
4 min read

Seattle 13, New England 10. Seven months after Super Bowl LX, the same two teams played the same game, and the same unit decided it. That is the story out of Wednesday night's Kickoff Game, and it travels a lot further than one result.

THE TAKE: Seattle's defense is the best in football until somebody proves otherwise

Start with February. In Super Bowl LX on Feb. 8, Seattle sacked Drake Maye six times, intercepted him twice, and held New England to four first downs before halftime and 42 rushing yards on 13 carries in a 29-13 win, per NFL.com. Kenneth Walker III took MVP with 135 yards on 27 carries while the Patriots punted on all five of their non-kneel first-half possessions.

Now Wednesday. Three more Maye interceptions - Nehemiah Pritchett, Julian Love, and Joshua Jobe on the game-ending pick - and Rhamondre Stevenson held under 55 yards on 18 carries, per Sportsnaut's winners and losers. NFL.com had Maye at 0-for-4 with three picks on throws of 20-plus air yards. Sportsnaut charted him at 54.9 percent with 5.4 yards per attempt.

Here is why that is a take and not a box score. Seattle did it after losing Coby Bryant and Tariq Woolen in the offseason, and did it while its own offense lost Sam Darnold to a hip injury five plays in. A defense that wins a title is a defense with a roster. A defense that turns over its secondary, loses its starting quarterback on the opening series of the next season, and still wins a 13-10 rock fight against the team it beat in February is a system. Until a healthy, functioning offense hangs 30 on Mike Macdonald, this is the best unit in the league and it is not particularly close.

THE VERDICT. Redraft: the Seattle DST is a set-and-forget top-five play, not a stream, and you are paying up for it in every format. Any offense drawing Seattle is a tier-down in your start/sit process, full stop. IDP: Julian Love is the floor play here after an interception and six tackles, and he is the one I want rostered in every league that starts three or more DBs. Nehemiah Pritchett is the speculative add in leagues that reward passes defensed - he had two plus the pick. DFS: fading pass-catchers against this secondary has been profitable for seven months running.

THE TAKE: A.J. Brown is not going to be the focal point in New England, even when he comes back

Brown caught three passes for 26 yards on four targets before he left with the ankle injury, per NFL.com. The MRI confirmed a high ankle sprain, he is on injured reserve, and he is eligible to return in Week 5, per NFL Network's Ian Rapoport. Romeo Doubs moved into the elevated role and, per Sportsnaut, did not fill it right away.

The league bought the Philadelphia version of A.J. Brown. That version demanded the football and got it. New England is not building that offense. The Patriots sent a 2028 first-rounder and a 2027 fifth to Philadelphia for him in June, and NFL.com framed the fit as a bona fide No. 1 target reuniting with Mike Vrabel, who coached him in Tennessee. That is the theory. The practice, on the one night we have actually seen it, was 18 Stevenson carries and four Brown targets in a 13-10 game.

This is not a shot at his talent. It is a read on role. By the time Brown is back in Week 5, Maye will have spent four games building timing with whoever is standing, in an offense that showed you on night one it is comfortable being run-first and low-event. Target share is a function of scheme and game script, and both of those are pointing away from a 28 percent alpha season.

THE VERDICT. Redraft: he is a buy, but at the New England price, not the Philadelphia price. If you drafted him as a set-and-forget WR1, treat your WR3 slot as an active problem through Week 4 and be honest that the ceiling you paid for probably is not coming back in full. Dynasty: this is the window. If his manager is panicking over an ankle and a four-target night, the talent has not changed and the contract has not changed - go get him. Just do not pay for the Philadelphia usage.

THREE MORE THINGS FROM WEDNESDAY

Drew Lock was better than his reputation. He went 16-of-22 for 187 yards with a touchdown and a 113.3 rating in relief, and NFL.com credited him with avoiding the risky throw and leading three scoring drives. Darnold is expected to miss Week 2, which puts Lock in the starting lineup against Arizona. NBC's broadcast pointed out Lock owns one of the lowest completion rates in the league since he entered it. Redraft verdict: he is a QB2 in superflex and nothing more, but the Seattle skill players survive the downgrade because this defense keeps every game script neutral.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba is the guy regardless of who is throwing. He beat Christian Gonzalez for a 45-yard catch-and-run touchdown and converted a 21-yard grab on third-and-22, per Sportsnaut - after being held to four catches for 27 yards on 10 targets in the Super Bowl. Verdict: WR1, and the quarterback change does not move him down a tier.

Drake Maye has a real problem. Sportsnaut noted he has thrown seven interceptions across his last five games with a substandard rating, and Wednesday ended with a red-zone throw off his back foot that got picked for the dagger. Verdict: if you drafted him as your only quarterback, you need a contingency plan on the wire by Week 3. Two of those five games came against this Seattle defense, which is the fair caveat - but the tape says pressure is speeding him up.

THE VERDICT

Seattle is the best defense in football and the price of admission against them has gone up again. A.J. Brown is a great player walking into an offense that is not built to force-feed him. Both of those things will be more obvious in October than they are today, which is exactly why you act on them now.

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